Cold, numbers-only
FPL analysis.
Expected points per fixture, minutes probability, clean sheet odds and the actual transfer maths. No pundits, no vibes, no “he's due”.
Open your team on the FPL site. The URL reads /entry/1234567/event/1 — that middle number is your ID.
How the model works
Minutes model
Start probability from starts-per-match, availability flags and price rank, not from reputation.
Attacking returns
xG90 and xA90 shrunk toward positional priors, then scaled by the opponent's defensive strength and venue.
Clean sheets
Poisson on projected goals conceded for that specific fixture.
Defensive contribution
CBIT/CBIRT rate against the 10 and 12 thresholds, as a probability not a yes/no.
Bonus
Expected bonus from BPS per 90, weighted by expected minutes.
The language model never touches a number. It reads the model output and writes it up. If it fails, you still get every figure.